Three thoughts on the situation in Kashmir

Sometimes standing still is the best move

Football fans will be aware of la pausa, which refers to the revolutionary act of slowing down, or even standing still, in the midst of the helter skelter of a football match. The idea is to either let a teammate get in a better position for a pass or to improve the angle of a pass by letting your defender move. You can see a great example below, from the 2014 World Cup quarter final between Argentina and Belgium. Watch Messi receive the ball, scamper forward as if he is going to go on one of his crazy runs, then slow down, almost stop, and then play the pass. That pause is to allow Di Maria to make the run down the right.

What does this have to do with Kashmir? The point is, sometimes standing still or doing nothing is the best move.

I believe it was Napoleon who said that when your opponent is making a mistake, you should let him. That's exactly the situation Pakistan finds itself in right now. India has made a pretty big blunder, the costs of which are likely to reveal themselves in the coming months and years.

It is true, as many are opining, that Pakistan has pretty limited options in the face of this crisis. One needs to look no further than Pakistan's "traditional" diplomatic allies on this issue, the good folks at OIC and the Gulf countries.

That escalated rather quickly: pic.twitter.com/HToe6CnU21

— Naila Inayat नायला इनायत (@nailainayat) August 13, 2019

But you don't need that much diplomatic or political capital to just point and say "Look over there. Things are bad." For the first time in a long, long time -- certainly the first time in my adult life -- India has done something in Kashmir that unambiguously paints it, rather than Pakistan. as the "bad guy." If you don't believe me, you can read any of the coverage in the western press on this issue (for example). Just reminding other diplomats of this is pretty much all Pakistan needs to, or should, be doing right now.


Man plans, God laughs

Apropos of absolutely nothing, I was googling "Musharraf Manmohan four point plan" yesterday. This article, from February 2018, was the first result, which goes through each of the four points. I am copying and pasting the following paragraph without comment:

3. Self-governance without independence Pakistan has long been an advocate of what it calls ‘Kashmiri self-determination’ but Musharraf was willing to give that up in favour of a greater measure of autonomy. Vajpayee would likely not have too many objections with this clause of the agreement because the Indian Constitution already allows autonomy for J&K under Article 370. While this would have meant that the BJP would have to give up one of its core ideological positions, the repeal of Article 370, it would put an end to Pakistani support to pro-independence Kashmiri insurgents.

I also found hilarious this story from a couple of days ago, presumably the follow up to Modi's "this was about development and growth in Kashmir" speech.

The Confederation of Indian Industries (CII) will be the national partner for the investors meet. An MoU has been signed by Jammu and Kashmir Trade Promotion Organisation (JKTPO) and CII for organisation and management of the event, the official said. Trade and industry organisations will come to know firsthand about the business- friendly policies of the government, assess infrastructure, natural resources, raw material and skill and un-skilled manpower available and identify business opportunities in the state, he said. It will present immense opportunities to develop contacts between the state and business community and between local and outside business communities, he said.

Lol, just lol. Memo to the Modi government: guys, I think step one in making Kashmir the next Silicon Valley might be turning the internet and phones back on. Just a thought.


1992 mein bhi...

One thing I've seen in the last week is a lot of analyses and reports harken back to the bad old 1990s, a time of one of the most brutal civil wars of the post World War II era. Is Kashmir poised for such an outbreak of conflict?

While I agree that local levels of Kashmiri disaffection are probably similar today, I doubt we will see anything like that ghastly conflict this time. I don't think GHQ is interested in such a strategy this time around. More importantly, the Indian state's capabilities -- military. surveillance, intelligence -- have had a generation to improve. You cannot launch a full blown insurgency when your region is as closely watched and as tightly guarded as Kashmir is. Protests, riots, rallies? Yes, once they actually open the aforementioned phone lines and internet. Insurgency? Not so much, and certainly nothing like what we saw between 1990 and 1994.